Antarctica and global climate change
A changing climate
The Earth’s climate is always changing, but the changes are usually very slow – typically taking hundreds to thousands of years. Natural processes such as variations in the Earth’s orbit, solar energy distribution and volcanic eruptions can influence the climate.
The greenhouse effect
What happens to incoming solar radiation?
6% is scattered by the atmosphere, 20% is absorbed by the atmosphere and clouds, 20% is reflected by clouds, 49% is absorbed by the Earth's surface and 5% is reflected by the Earth's surface.
Over millions of years, the Earth has alternated between warm and cold periods, but the climate has been fairly stable over the last 10,000 years. This stability has allowed a large variety of different ecosystems (and humans) to establish and flourish.
Human activities in the last century have had an effect on this natural climate balance. Greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, water vapour, methane and other gases) act like a blanket and cause the Earth to warm. Even small changes in the global average temperature can lead to large shifts in climate and weather.
Antarctica and global climate change
Antarctica New Zealand supports several long-term science programmes that detect and monitor changes in the atmosphere, on the land and in the sea.
The soil-climate monitoring network began in 1999. It provides the largest long-running soil-climate data set in Antarctica. Antarctica is an ideal location to study local-to-global scale climate change. The low diversity of life in the Dry Valleys allows scientists to study it in great detail – including the effects of small climate changes. Scientists think that, once they understand how things work in Antarctica, they can use this knowledge to make predictions about the impacts of climate change elsewhere.
New Zealand scientists also began monitoring the McMurdo Sound sea ice in 1999. Antarctic sea ice – frozen sea water – forms, grows and melts in the sea. This the annual sea ice cycle in Antarctica is a vital regulator of the planet’s climate. In the winter, the white surface reflects most of the solar radiation back into space. In summer, when there’s less ice and more dark ocean water, more solar heat is absorbed instead of being reflected. Climate change is warming the Earth, causing sea ice to melt more quickly and leading to more open oceans and land masses being exposed – further warming the Earth. The sea ice also influences ocean circulation.
Ice core showing annual rings
This is an ice core showing annual rings. The oldest ice ever retrieved was about 950 thousand years old.
Antarctica also acts like an archive for ancient history. Small amounts of air get trapped in ice and can reveal climate information from the past. Scientists have charted greenhouse gas levels from as far back as 800,000 years. Ice core data shows that temperatures were warmer when there were more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and vice versa.
Fossil evidence goes back even further. It shows that, around 45 million years ago, Antarctica resembled a South Island bush ecosystem, with trees, amphibians, insects and fish. Over 10 million years, the climate cooled and the forests were replaced with ice and scrubby grasslands – similar to those found along the central North Island’s Desert Road. Further cooling meant that Antarctica became the ice-covered continent it is today.
Green Antarctica and the New Zealand connection
Professor Jane Francis, Director of the British Antarctic Survey, explains how fossil leaves and branches buried by glaciers millions of years ago show that Antarctica once looked more like South Island’s West Coast beech forests.
Earth’s climate has therefore always changed, but it’s the influence of human impacts that is now causing enormous international concern and activity.
Impacts of climate change on Aotearoa New Zealand
Climate scientists expect the Earth’s average temperature to increase around 2.5°C to 4°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100. In New Zealand, the Ministry for the Environment predicts the average temperature will rise by about 2°C. While it does not sound like much, warmer temperatures may cause:
more frequent extreme weather events such as droughts and floods
a need to change land use activities due to changes in rainfall patterns
sea level rises and coastal erosion
changes to South Island water flows as snowlines and glaciers retreat
native ecosystems to be affected by an increase in pest species
Climate connections – why climate change matters and Why climate change matters to Māori have additional information on local impacts.
Nature of science
Politics, economics and other social and cultural elements affect the direction of scientific research. It is the role of scientists to provide reliable information regarding climate change. It is up to governments or other decision makers to consider scientific as well as economic and social factors when making policy decisions.
The level 3 Connected article Captured in ice describes how scientists investigate Earth’s climate and supports students to use the science capability ‘Engage with science’.
Related content and activity ideas
Voice of the Sea Ice – science research and adventure in Antarctica
Greenhouse gases
Greenhouse gases and the atmosphere – article
Greenhouse effect – article
Carbon cycle – article
Greenhouse simulation – activity
Carbon dioxide emissions calculator – activity
Carbon cycle – three-level reading guide – activity
Antarctica and climate change
We’ve suites of resources all about Antarctica and climate change.
The film Thin Ice – The Inside Story of Climate Science provides a look at our planet’s changing climate, with a range of Science Learning Hub resources designed to support its use in the classroom.
The documentary series On Thin Ice: Nigel Latta in Antarctica features accessible, insightful stories and conversations with scientists across a range of fields. Our planning article provides additional resources.
Antarctica and Aotearoa: connected by science features resources created with educators Carol Brieseman and Dianne Christenson.
Icy ecosystems – introduction curates science research that takes place in Antarctica.
Useful links
Visit the Climate Change section on the Ministry of Environment website. It includes latest news, reports and explains climate change, its impacts, implications and the New Zealand Government’s overall approach and more.
A guide to climate change for kids resource from NASA’s Climate Kids web explains climate change science and issues.
The Climate Change Learning Programme supports climate literacy for young people aged 10–14. Aotearoa contexts and mātauranga Māori are embedded throughout the learning modules and the wellbeing guide. The programme was updated in 2024 to reflect current science climate science and knowledge. The wellbeing guide reflects multiple perspectives and fosters resilience.
Scientists continue to research climate change from the unique clues that the Antarctic environment holds. Discover more about Victoria University of Wellington’s Antarctic Research Centre Te Puna Pātiotio’s key research areas and how they approach them. The team won the 2019 Prime Minister’s Science Prize.
Returning to a green Antarctica is a comic by Simone Giovanardi and Bella Duncan. It explains why Antarctica once looked more like South Island’s West Coast beech forests than the frozen continent we know today.
Discover lots of great resources on glaciers and climate from the AntarcticGlaciers.org website.
In 2024 the Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand released a special issue New Zealand and Antarctica in a changing climate with guest editors James Renwick CRSNZ, Rebecca Priestley CRSNZ, Bruce Glavovic and Darren King.
