Jumping to conclusions

This means forming a general conclusion without considering all the variables involved.

A well-known example is the controversy that erupted from the publication of a case study linking the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine to autistic behaviours in young children.

The paper was retracted by the publisher and the authors found guilty of deliberate fraud (they cherry picked and chose data that suited their case and falsified facts).

However, media and parents jumped to conclusions – concluding that vaccines cause autism, which resulted in a fall in children being vaccinated against childhood diseases. Read more in the article Fraudulent study: MMR vaccine controversy.

How to spot jumping to conclusions

• Ensure that findings are based on robust evidence and replicated in independent studies.

• Consider alternative explanations and maintain scepticism about extraordinary claims.

• Look to see if the results are overstated.

The pictured headline from this news article jumps to the conclusion that the AstraZeneca vaccine was withdrawn due to dangerous side effects. Try some lateral reading – such as this BBC news article that states the withdrawal was a commercial decision due to lack of demand. Further reading shows that the AstraZeneca vaccine was not the only one to cause blood clots, and research supports that this side effect was “extremely rare”.