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Impossible expectations

Tweet that reads “The climate models can predict the past. Just like models of the stock market. I defy these ‘modellers’ to predict one stock accurately for one year and to bet their own money on the outcome. And one stock is a lot less complex than ‘climate’ particularly out a century”

This occurs when someone dismisses an argument, claim or solution by setting unrealistic or unattainable standards of proof or perfection. It undermines valid ideas by demanding evidence or results that cannot reasonably be achieved, even when there is sufficient evidence or practical merit.

How to spot an impossible expectation

  • Unreasonable demands. Look for arguments dismissing claims because they don’t meet impractical or perfectionist standards.

  • Does the argument ignore that most conclusions or solutions are based on probabilities, trends or practical trade-offs – not absolutes?

  • Moving goalposts. Does the information or argument requirement for proof or success keep changing to avoid accepting the argument?

The pictured post on a social media account asks climate modellers to “predict one stock accurately for one year” to prove their climate models can be believed. The suggestion a climate modeller create a model based on an area outside of their expertise to prove their expertise is unrealistic.

Rights: Twitter (now ‘X’) user collection, all rights reserved
Published: 30 June 2025Size: 120.28 KB