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Dr Jan Lindsay describes the DEVORA project – DEtermining VOlcanic Risk in Auckland. We learn about what the scientists are studying to try and determine what, when and how the next volcanic eruption might occur.


DEVORA stands for DEtermining VOlcanic Risk in Auckland, and what we are trying to do is provide a really comprehensive understanding of the Auckland volcanic field and the risk to the city of Auckland that is posed by the Auckland volcanic field.

There’s a geology theme, a hazards theme and a risk theme. So in terms of the geology theme, we will try and get a really good understanding of where the magma is, where it’s coming from, how fast it’s travelling to the surface, what the crust is made of – that kind of thing. And in terms of the hazard theme, we want to know how often this has happened in the past and how often it could happen in the future. And then in the risk theme, what does this mean for Auckland?

We have an example in the Auckland region of a very low probability event, but extremely high consequences. So we are not only looking at the hazard – which is how often will this volcano erupt in the future and what will happen if it did? – but we are taking it that one step further and saying, OK, if it happened here, what would be the impact? How many people would be affected? How many businesses? What lifelines do these people have? Continuity planning in their businesses, that sort of thing.

Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management, Auckland Regional Council


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